Africa's Population Index

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Approximate evolution of the population of sub-Saharan Africa from 800 AD to 2000.



- 800 to 1300: formation of kingdoms and empires; average annual growth rate: about 0.14%.

- From 1300 to 1550: economic development, cities 60 000-200 000, large villages, average annual growth rate: about 0.35%.

- From 1550 to 1850 / 1870: Portuguese and Arab attacks, firearms, direct and indirect effects of Arab and European treaties, continuing insecurity, the average annual decline rate (average annual growth rate negative) about - 0, 4 %.

- From 1870 to 1930: Continuation of the Eastern treaties, military conquest, forced labor, repression, requisitions average annual decline rate (average annual growth rate negative):

about - 0, 7%.

- From 1930 to 1949: health and administrative action, early recovery demographic average annual growth rate: about 0.7%.

[djoser-xyyman]

Résumé : Berceau de l'humanité, l'Afrique noire a conservé un potentiel humain relativement important durant toute la préhistoire. Les conditions naturelles sont comparables à celles de l'Asie méridionale. Le peuplement s'est accru pendant l'Antiquité, particulièrement dans la région du Nil Moyen. Du 8e au 17e siècle, divers témoignages sur le nombre des habitants se recoupent entre eux et sont progressivement confirmés par l'archéologie.


En partant des résultats du recensement de 1948-1949, on peut estimer à quelque 125/130 millions la population de l'Afrique noire en 1930. Entre 1870 et 1930, l'analyse des faits historiques montre que la population a diminué de plus du tiers : vers 1850-1870, elle était donc de l'ordre de 200 millions.

Entre 1550 et 1850, les attaques portugaises et marocaines puis les différentes traites additionnées ont produit des effets analogues à ceux des guerres de Cent Ans et de Trente Ans en Europe. En comparant l'habitat du 19e siècle à celui des 15e/16e siècles, on constate que la population du 19e siècle est 3 ou 4 fois moindre. Il est donc plausible de supposer que l'Afrique noire subsaharienne, vers 1500/1550, devait probablement compter entre 600 et 800 millions d'habitants, soit 30 à 40 au km2.

Des simulations numériques effectuées à partir de nombres connus d'esclaves exportés, confirment l'impossibilité des hypothèses de 4 à 5 habitants/km2 au 16e siècle, admises jusqu'à présent et corroborent les chiffres ci-dessus indiqués.



Abstract : EVOLUTION OF THE BLACK AFRICA POPULATION FROM NEOLITHIC TO THE MIDDLE OF THE 20th CENTURY— During the entire period of prehistory, Black Africa, the cradle of humanity, maintained a relatively large population. The natural conditions are comparable to those of South Asia. Human inhabitation increased during Antiquity, especially in the Middle Nile region. From the 8th to the 17th century, various testimonies related to population density are similar and have been progressively confirmed as accurate by archaeological findings.From the results of the 1948-49 census, the population of Black Africa in 1930 can be put at 125/130 million. An analysis of historical facts shows that the population had decreased in population by more than one third of its people between 1870 and 1930. We can thus infer that in 1850-1870, the population of Sub-Saharan Africa was approximatively 200 million.


Between 1550 and 1850, the Portuguese and Moroccan attacks afterwards the different slave trades added have produced effects similar to those which the One Hundred Years War and the Thirty Years War had on Europe. In comparing the settlements of the 19th century to those of the 15th/16th centuries, it appears that the population in the 19th century is the three or the four times inferior. It is therefore plausible to assume that Black Africa most likely had a population of between 600 and 800 million, around 1500/1550, that is to say, 30 to 40 inhabitants per km2.


Numerical simulations based on known numbers of exported slaves refutes the previously accepted hypothesis of 4 to 5 inhabitants per km2 during the 16th century, and confirms the above figures.